A prolonged conflict between Israel and Iran may do more than rattle energy markets. One argument on Wall Street is that it could push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner than expected.

Selling pressure on 10-year US Treasuries from the latest round of Israel-Iran conflict is likely to have a lasting effect if past episodes of clashes between the two nations are any guide.

The US Federal Reserve will likely continue pausing rate cuts on Wednesday, but the conflict between Israel and Iran could ...